Harris County voters are heading to the polls in strong numbers, putting the county on track to surpass early voting turnout from the 2022 midterm election.
But a closer look at who’s casting ballots reveals an important trend — most are people who have voted before.
With early voting entering its final week ahead of the November 3 election, a Rice University political science professor said the next few days could help determine whether Republicans narrow an early turnout gap with Democrats and what that means for some of Texas’ most closely watched races.
Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University, says Harris County is seeing unusually strong participation for a midterm election.
“I think one thing is that we are on track to surpass 2022 in terms of the early vote with the actual final turnout being somewhere between a presidential election year and a midterm, but very high for a midterm,” Jones said.
However, the increase doesn’t necessarily mean large numbers of first-time or infrequent voters are heading to the polls.
According to Jones, roughly four out of five people who have voted early also participated in the 2022 midterm election.
“Only about one in five did not vote back in 2022,” Jones said. “That suggests that we will see higher turnout than in 2022.”
He says the numbers point to a stronger-than-average midterm election, but turnout is not currently expected to reach presidential election levels.
Jones says an analysis of voter records suggests Democratic-leaning voters turned out at a higher rate than Republican-leaning voters during the first week of early voting.
Now, the question is whether that trend will continue.
“The thing to watch during the second week of early voting is will Republicans begin to narrow the gap that currently exists between them and Democrats,” Jones said.
He explained that Republicans could gain ground if more of their supporters vote during the final week or on Election Day.
If the gap remains, Jones believes Democrats could be positioned for significant victories in Harris County.
It’s important to note that Texas voters do not register by political party. These turnout estimates are based on voter history and likely partisan affiliation, not actual votes cast for candidates.
Harris County is one of the most important voting battlegrounds in Texas because of its large population.
Jones estimates that approximately one out of every seven votes cast statewide this election will come from Harris County.
That means candidates running for statewide office, including Republican U.S. Senate candidate Ken Paxton and Democratic challenger James Talarico, have a lot riding on turnout in the Houston area.
“Republican candidates cannot afford to do poorly in Harris County because if they do, then they have to make that up across the state,” Jones said.
He says the U.S. Senate race is among the contests he’ll be watching most closely on Election Night.
Another trend Jones is watching is how many voters cast ballots early compared with those who wait until November 3.
Historically, about two-thirds of voters in a midterm election vote early, while roughly one-third vote on Election Day.
But this year could look different.
Jones says Harris County could see a voting pattern more typical of a presidential election, with approximately 70% to 80% of ballots cast before Election Day.
That could make the first election results released on November 3 especially revealing.
Jones explained that if the overwhelming majority of voters have already cast their ballots, the initial results could provide a strong indication of which candidates are headed toward victory.
Still, the outcome won’t be known until the remaining votes are counted.
Early voting for the November 3 general election continues through Friday, October 30.
Voters who haven’t cast their ballots still have several days to participate before Election Day.
For Jones, the biggest question isn’t simply how many people will vote — it’s whether the voters who haven’t shown up yet will change the political balance.
The final days of early voting could offer important clues about what to expect when polls close on November 3.
For early voting locations, hours and election information, visit HarrisVotes.com.
